Spatial-Temporal Variability of Future Rainfall Erosivity and Its Impact on Soil Loss Risk in Kenya
نویسندگان
چکیده
Ongoing climate change poses a major threat to the soil resources of many African countries that mainly rely on an agricultural economy. While arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs) take up most Kenya’s land mass, approximately 64% its total croplands lie within mountainous areas with high rainfall, hence, highly vulnerable water erosion. Flooding Great Lakes increasing desertification ASALs are illustrative cases implications recent precipitation dynamics in Kenya. This study applied Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) estimate future erosion rates at national level based four Coupled Model Intercomparison Project v5 (CMIP5) models under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. Results showed current loss rate be 4.76 t ha−1 yr−1 projected increase average rainfall erosivity scenarios, except for RCP-2.6 (2030s) (2080s) MIROC-5 model. Future projections revealed incremental from baseline by cumulative 39.9% 61.1% all scenarios 2030s 2080s, respectively, while is likely concomitantly 29% 60%, respectively. The CCCMA_CANESM2 model RCP 8.5 scenario highest 15 over Kenya, which maximum above 200%, Rift Valley region recording 100% 7.05 14.66 yr−1. As first countrywide study, this assessment provides useful reference preventing improving ecosystem service security.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Applied sciences
سال: 2021
ISSN: ['2076-3417']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/app11219903